Ensuing can misread occasions — Scott Miker

Ensuing is the time period that’s utilized by poker gamers to explain once they use the end result of the hand to evaluate their determination. In the event that they win, they assume they made a good selection. In the event that they lose, they assume they made a foul selection.

However poker, simply as in life, incorporates danger. This implies there are components which are unpredictable. There are components which are past our management and past our skill to know forward of time.

In different phrases, poker (and life) incorporates components of luck. This doesn’t imply luck is the basis reason behind something. It means a component of likelihood will at all times be current.

If you use ensuing, chances are you’ll overvalue a poor determination since you acquired fortunate. Or chances are you’ll undervalue a superb determination the place unhealthy luck influenced the end result.

This doesn’t imply we ignore the outcomes. It doesn’t imply we are able to’t be taught one thing after we fail. It doesn’t imply we use luck as a scapegoat when issues go improper.

It signifies that we have to perceive that likelihood points are unsure. We are able to’t eradicate that uncertainty. We should handle it and reside with it.

Just lately I skilled this. I made an essential life determination. I did my analysis and investigated areas that I assumed had the potential to go awry. In any case my due diligence I used to be assured I made the best selection.

Shortly after I made the selection, I got here to appreciate that I picked the improper possibility. It was irritating. I began to consider the method of selecting and what I did improper.

I stored developing with the identical analysis. I requested nice questions. I adopted up on areas of concern. Going again to the second after I made the choice, if I didn’t know the way it all turned out, I might nonetheless make that selection.

In hindsight, it wasn’t the most suitable choice. However with out hindsight, there wasn’t something separating it from a greater determination.

It wasn’t enjoyable. I needed to reside with this determination and the implications. I needed to undergo via months of second-guessing and worrying concerning the results.

Fortunately, I used to be in a position to face the same determination shortly afterwards. I adopted my due diligence course of and was confronted with a selection. The selection appeared similar to the earlier one which didn’t work out. I couldn’t separate it in my thoughts.

However I trusted my intestine and pushed ahead. This time, I acquired fortunate. It labored out a lot better than I might have imagined. In actual fact, I couldn’t have recognized simply how properly all of it labored out.

The choice-making course of for me was nearly equivalent. Making the identical selection twice resulted in two excessive outcomes, one optimistic and one destructive.

If I used ensuing, I might have held off on the second determination, assuming it was flawed like the primary one. However I knew about ensuing and understood that I couldn’t decide the choice solely by the end result. I knew I made a strong determination that contained danger.

This additionally helped me preserve my ego in examine with the second determination. As an alternative of letting the optimistic consequence go to my head, I knew I acquired fortunate. Simply as I used to be unfortunate final time, I used to be fortunate this time.

Life is filled with likelihood. There may be luck in nearly something we do. The important thing isn’t to at all times have good luck. The secret’s to grasp and handle danger in a method that gives a extra probably optimistic consequence over time.

So, don’t be laborious on your self whenever you comply with a superb course of however get a poor consequence. And don’t let your ego inflate when one thing optimistic occurs. Even when you used a superb course of, know that there’s nonetheless luck. A optimistic consequence signifies that luck aligned and your course of labored, not that it’s infallible or unable to fail.

For extra on ensuing, take a look at Annie Duke’s guide, Considering in Bets

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